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« What's THIS doing on the front page of the NY Times? | Main | Socialist fare (and "fair") being tested at Obamaville »

Friday, 28 October 2011

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Mannie Sherberg
I don't know about other BtB readers, but I find that 44% number worrisome, to say the least. It's a stark reminder that Obama wouldn't have to add much to his present base to win in 2012 -- and adding those additional votes might not be that hard to find if the stock market keeps moving upward, if economic growth continues even slightly upward, as if did last quarter, and if the EU's machinations this week work well enough to retard the collapse of the Eurozone until late 2012, If that happy concatenation of events occurs (and that's certainly not implausible) Obama could run on a platform of "Things are looking up ... America is on its way back ... give me four more years to finish the job" -- and pull off a victory. That victory would be made easier by the fact that poll after poll shows that many Americans, despite Obama's miserable performance, like the guy -- and likability matters immensely. My own reading of the coming year is that the economy will remain stuck in the quagmire, and that Obama will therefore lose. But I could be dead wrong. There are plenty of indicators that things could be turning around. If they do, the GOP -- especially if it nominates a weak and lackluster candidate like Romney (who is not particularly "likable") will probably lose to Obama -- who may even now be less than 10 points away from re-election. (Of course, that re-election would be made immeasurably easier if Ron Paul were to run as a third-party candidate,as he said this week he might.) The dilemma for conservatives is that we desperately want to see Obama defeated -- and we desperately want to see the economy improve. The two goals may prove incompatible. I for one would feel a hell of lot more confident if that 44% were to drop to 14 or 4%. But that's not going to happen.

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