Okay, this is scarey:
Why scarey? I'll give you one big clue in one tiny excerpt, and then you go read it all... by our friend Rick Richman.
Look at what happened in North Korea: James Clapper, the director of National Intelligence, told the Senate a year ago that "we do not know whether [North Korea] has produced nuclear weapons, but we assess it has the capability to do so." Last month, however, Clapper told the Senate flatly, "North Korea has produced nuclear weapons."
In the space of a year, U.S. intelligence went from "not knowing" whether North Korea had produced nuclear weapons to knowing that it had. Intelligence may not be clear until after the fact, when it is too late.