Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese general and author of The Art of War:
"Know your enemy and know yourself;
in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated.
When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself,
your chances of winning or losing are equal.
If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself,
you are sure to be defeated in every battle."
Although he's from West-byGD-Virginia, I don't know him personally, but I do nevertheless heart Chris Stirewalt. And he is scaring me to pieces this morning. But well and good that he is, because we must know "the enemy" ... or "the opposition," if you'd rather.
.... The establishment press is consumed with the idea that Romney has a “narrow path.” That’s true, in the sense that he daggone well better win Ohio or he won’t win the election. But that’s been true of every Republican since Abe Lincoln.
Obama’s path is somewhat geographically narrow in that he probably needs to win three of the five big Eastern swing states: Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.
But demographically, it’s ultra-narrow.
Team Obama wants to hold down turnout for Romney in the ‘burbs and with blue-collar voters, while simultaneously squeezing out every vote from key Democratic groups: government worker unions, Hispanics, blacks, the poor, etc.
This is not a strategy for a broad victory, but a narrow one, won in Salvadoran neighborhoods in Northern Virginia, black precincts in Philadelphia and a dozen state-capital counties where AFSCME can drive turnout.
Here’s the Obama vision for the cycle: While Obama and allied groups barrage Mitt Romney with negative advertising to hold down the Republican’s margins with independents and suburbanites, Team Obama will be using its own resources and groups like the ones Soros is now funding to recruit, equip and mobilize supporters on the left.
By the fall, Obama hopes to see Democratic intensity up, Republican intensity down and smart-phone wielding campaign workers blanketing the blue precincts of purple states.
If Romney fails in his central task – to prosecute Obama’s economic record – then this kind of narrow, base-versus-base strategy can deliver a victory for Obama.