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Thursday, 31 May 2012

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Elan
It is not as close as it looks. Of the 50% who disapprove of Obama, 40% "strongly disapprove." Of the 49% who approve of Obama, only 27% do so "strongly." In other words, opposition is solid, while support is thin. The enthusiasm gap is a force multiplier for Romney that is not reflected in the overall numbers.
Mannie Sherberg
I think Elan has it exactly right. There's a "gut" factor in every election -- and in this election the gut factor is going to work in Romney's favor. Looked at superficially, these numbers confirm the conventional wisdom, which is that this will be a tight election. But looked at closely, as Elan has done, the same numbers give some support to the prediction of Dick Morris and some others that Romney will win in a blowout. I'm not prepared to predict a landslide, but I will predict a Romney victory that's more than merely "tight." This morning's unemployment numbers, and, even more, this morning's economic growth numbers, both lend credence to this forecast. As I see it, the only thing that's going to tighten up between now and November 6th is the electorate's guts.

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