... markets rallied on July 27 on news of the anemic 1.5 percent growth number, claiming it had beaten expectations.
But everyone should be taking the Bureau’s advance estimate with a big grain of salt.
GDP numbers through the first half of 2008 failed to show that we were in a recession, when in reality the downturn had already begun at the end of 2007.
Once again, the economy is visibly slowing down, but are we already in another recession? At best, we’re at stall speed, but we may already be contracting.
In fact, in 11 of 16 economic quarters from 2008-2011, the Bureau’s advance estimate of GDP has been revised downward. As a result, there is a greater than 68 percent likelihood that July 27’s 1.5 percent growth number too will be lowered.
On average, in the past 4 years, the Bureau’s advance estimate has been revised downward by 1.1 percent for every quarter represented.
Our early warning systems are broken, and economists are left only to extrapolate that we are in serious trouble.
Meanwhile, Obama has done nothing to get the economy back on its feet. His only plan is to raise taxes on job creators, wage his war on business, and spend us into oblivion....