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« Do the Math (Van Jones) | Main | Left-wing "Now we understand" Quote of the Day »

Sunday, 24 July 2011


Michael Krauss
The difference between the polls is actually crucial, Ann. AT 48% approval he likely wins re-election (according to historical results). Below 48% approval he likely loses.
I'm not sure I would buy the 48% cutoff. I suppose it's way too early to tell until next spring. Gallup Poll assistant editor Joseph Caroll wrote [in May 2004] that Gallup polling "over the past half-century shows that the five incumbent presidents who won re-election maintained approval ratings above 50% from the spring of that year through the election." // I can't imagine The Won being able to pull that off, no matter HOW much money he throws at it. At Rasmussen anyway, his approval hasn't been at 50%-or-above for a period of several days since mid-summer 2009.
Rick Richman
What the bottom chart illustrates is that intensity matters. When the percentage of Strongly Disapprove matches the total Approve and the level of Strongly Approve is tepid, it indicates a pent-up opposition that will explode on Election Day. So if these percentages hold, Obama will be buttered, as Yael suggests.

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