Baloney: "a statistical lie aimed at making it sound as if the economy is growing"

 

 

 

           8.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don Surber:

The federal government said employment increased by 120,000 in November (an increase of less than 1/1,000th) and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4% ? Baloney. It is a statistical lie aimed at making it sound as if the economy is growing.

Indeed, Bloomberg reported that 315,000 people left the workforce — meaning the number of dropouts was nearly triple the net gain in jobs....

....  But this figure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is bogus.

 

CNBC's Jeff Cox explains:

... the unemployment rate slid to 8.6 percent ... from the previous month's 9.0 percent, a move which in part reflected a drop in those looking for jobs.

 

The participation rate dropped to 64 percent, from 64.2 percent in October.

BLS

 

....The drop in participation rate is significant in that had the labor force remained steady, the jobless rate would have dropped to 8.8 percent... If the labor force had followed trend growth, unemployment would be at 8.9 percent.

"Overall, the continued modest employment gains reflect an economy that plods along at an uninspiring pace," Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board, said in a statement. 

 

 

"These modest job gains are still not enough to propel economic growth to a sustainable 2 percent-plus growth path."

 

Now back to Mr. Surber:

Politically, this is of course a godsend for the president. This should send his approval rate past 50% again for the first time since May when he personally stalked, surprised and shot Osama bin Laden and then played a round of golf with his head. I do not buy that a president needs the unemployment rate to be below 7.2% to win re-election. Jerry Ford almost pulled it off despite 7.8% unemployment.

All a president need do is show progress on the economy, as President Reagan did in 1984....

 

Comments

[Mannie Sherberg]

Despair, hopelessness, wretchedness: that's what this story is really all about. 315,000 of our fellow citizens have resigned themselves to living in the slough of despond -- and this will be trumpeted by the Obama administration as a triumph and a victory. Are the American people stupid enough to fall for this statistical hocus-pocus -- as Surber seems to believe they are? I'm more skeptical -- and more inclined to trust the good sense of my fellow citizens. We shall see who's right.

[Yael]

Mannie, what we don't know - yet - is whether the 315,000 have been forced onto the gubmint dole. If so (and what else would you do?) then it may be a double victory for The Won. But like you, I'm thinking that the American people will believe what they are actually experiencing in their own lives over and above what they read in the paper. I don't know that mere statistics would be convincing otherwise. As you say, we shall see...

[Mannie Sherberg]

Good point,Yael. From Obama's point of view, making another 315,00 people dependents of the government is a triumph -- and a Leftie's dream come true. There's a fancy word for what Obama's doing: immiseration -- the sinking of more and more people into abject misery. When you get right down to it, that's what the Left has always been about. Still is. Disgusting!

[Tom Glennon]

Regarding the 315,000 who have fallen off the job seeking rolls. Generally speaking, an unemployed person has 26 weeks of state funded unemployment benefits. If the unemployment rate in their state is above a trigger percentage, the Federal government will provide up to 73 weeks of additional benefits. Iowa, my state, does not qualify because our rate is below the trigger. The funny part is that most states with a history of Republican state government do not qualify for extended benefits. It is primarily states with Democratic leadership that have higher unemployment figures. In any event, if a person has exhausted all unemployment benefits, exceeded the time the state will assist in seeking employment, and must now subsist on other aid programs (such as AFDC and food stamps), they are no longer categorized as unemployed, and fall completely off the rolls. Hope this helps.