Okay, so I fell down on the job yesterday. You can expect a lot of that in coming days; the grandboys are coming to visit so I intend to be happily engaged elsewhere much of the time for the next week or so. I'll see what I can do about getting some help in so that BtB remains at least somewhat relevant, but in the meantime this is the most urgent of news:
Iran Threatens To Close Strait of Hormuz
Ace of Spades:
.... Obama has presented himself to the world for three years as a weak man embarrassed and ashamed of America's might, chiefly obsessed with making apologies and insulting old (colonialist) allies, and who flinches from the hard way.
He's been clear on his policy of appeasement towards Iran, which emboldens Iran, and which may cause them to think they really can block traffic in the Strait with impunity.
There is one snag in that chain of reasoning: It's an election year, and Obama is as a weak in the polls as he is in world leadership.
We may wind up exchanging shots precisely because Obama has presented himself as so craven, and now reaches for the military option out of a different sort of craveneness.
This could all just be saber-rattling, and Obama's own rattled saber might induce the Iranians to but their own saber away.
But many times wars erupt due to miscalculation, don't they? Miscalculations about the enemies' capabilities, intentions, and likely responses to provocations.
Do the Iranians understand it's an election year and Obama desperately needs some kind of accomplishment to add to his pile of one?
I don't know.
.... But I do know what "peace through strength" means.... Peace through strength means would-be enemies do not doubt your mettle or your will to carry your national interests forward, so they don't test that mettle.
It's not just the fights you win. It's the fights you win because no one attempts to fight you at all.
Tell it to the Democrats.
As for me, I'm waiting to see what retired US Naval Intelligence officer J.E. Dyer has to say about all this.
USS George Bush transits through the Strait of Hormuz (StrategicRisk.edu)
See also Business Insider:
"US Sends Aircraft Carrier Into The Strait of Hormuz As Iran Beats Its Chest."